AI・機械学習
GPT-5.5 Codexの推論トークンクラスタリングがパフォーマンス低下を招いている可能性
GPT-5.5 Codex reasoning-token clustering may be leading to degraded performance (github.com)
要約
GitHubのIssueで報告された内容によると、GPT-5.5 Codexでは推論トークン数が特定の固定値(516、1034、1552)に集中する異常なパターンが観測されています。このクラスタリングは、複雑なタスクにおけるパフォーマンス低下と関連している可能性があり、推論バジェットの制限や隠れたトークン数制限を示唆しています。この現象はGPT-5.5に特有で、時間とともに顕著になっています。
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GPT-5.5 Codex reasoning-token clustering at 516/1034/1552 may be leading to degraded performance on complex tasks #30364
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GPT-5.5 Codex reasoning-token clustering at 516/1034/1552 may be leading to degraded performance on complex tasks#30364Copy link
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Description
vguptaa45 opened on Jun 27, 2026
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Summary
I found an aggregate pattern in Codex token_count metadata: gpt-5.5 responses disproportionately land at exactly reasoning_output_tokens = 516, with additional fixed-boundary spikes around 1034 and 1552. This appears model-specific and coincides with lower overall reasoning-token intensity, which may help explain degraded performance on complex/high-stakes Codex tasks.
This is related to #29353, which reported a task-level reproduction where gpt-5.5 runs ending at exactly 516 reasoning tokens returned the wrong answer. This issue adds aggregate evidence across a larger Feb-Jun window.
I am not claiming this proves hidden chain-of-thought truncation. The narrower claim is that Codex telemetry shows a GPT-5.5-specific fixed-token clustering anomaly that looks consistent with thresholded reasoning-budget behavior.
Environment
Product: Codex
Model most implicated: gpt-5.5
Data source: Codex token_count metadata
Time window analyzed: Feb 1-Jun 27, 2026 UTC
Related issue: gpt-5.5 xhigh sometimes short-circuits with reasoning_output_tokens=516 and wrong final_answer in Codex Desktop #29353
Evidence
Metric
Value
Response-level token records analyzed
390,195
Sessions represented
865
Exact reasoning_output_tokens = 516 events
3,363
GPT-5.5 share of all responses
19.3%
GPT-5.5 share of exact-516 events
82.0%
GPT-5.5 exact-516 / >=516 ratio
44.0%
Non-GPT-5.5 exact-516 / >=516 ratio
1.3%
Model-level result:
Model
Response records
Exact 516 / >=516
gpt-5.5
75,401
44.0%
gpt-5.4
25,214
19.8%
gpt-5.2
247,575
0.34%
gpt-5.3-codex
13,333
0.0%
gpt-5.3-codex-spark
26,179
0.0%
Monthly exact-516 clustering increased sharply:
Month
Exact 516 / >=516
Feb 2026
0.11%
Mar 2026
2.45%
Apr 2026
4.25%
May 2026
53.30%
Jun 2026
35.84%
At the same time, overall reasoning-token intensity decreased:
Month
Mean reasoning tokens
P90 reasoning tokens
Feb 2026
268.1
772
Mar 2026
256.8
723
Apr 2026
228.7
669
May 2026
106.9
344
Jun 2026
168.5
515
Why this looks suspicious
The anomaly is not simply higher reasoning-token usage overall. Mean and P90 reasoning-token intensity fell from February-April to May-June, while exact-516 clustering rose sharply.
The clustering is also not evenly distributed across models. gpt-5.5 accounts for only 19.3% of responses but 82.0% of exact-516 events. Its exact-516 / >=516 ratio is about 33.6x higher than the non-GPT-5.5 baseline.
The fixed values are also notable: 516, 1034, and 1552 look like repeated threshold boundaries rather than a naturally varying reasoning-token distribution.
Expected behavior
Reasoning-token counts for complex Codex tasks should vary naturally with task complexity and should not disproportionately cluster at exact fixed values for one model family.
Actual behavior
gpt-5.5 responses cluster heavily at exactly 516 reasoning tokens, with related spikes around 1034 and 1552. This pattern is much weaker or absent in several other models.
Ask
Could the Codex team investigate whether gpt-5.5 has a reasoning-budget, routing, truncation, fallback, or scheduler behavior that causes responses to terminate around 516/1034/1552 reasoning tokens?
If this is expected behavior, it would be useful to know whether exact 516 indicates a normal stopping point, a budget cap, a degraded tier, or another internal threshold.
Useful internal validation checks:
Query token_count events with reasoning_output_tokens by model.
Compare exact-value counts for 0, 516, 1034, and 1552.
Compute count(reasoning_output_tokens = 516) / count(reasoning_output_tokens >= 516) by model and day.
Compare gpt-5.5 against gpt-5.2, gpt-5.4, and Codex-specific variants.
Replay matched complex tasks across GPT-5.2 and GPT-5.5 with quality evals, especially separating exact-516 responses from longer-reasoning responses.
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Codexチームは、gpt-5.5に推論バジェット、ルーティング、トランケーション、フォールバック、またはスケジューラのような挙動があり、レスポンスが約516/1034/1552の推論トークンで終了する原因となっているかどうかを調査してもらえないでしょうか?
もしこれが予期された挙動である場合、正確な516が通常の停止点、バジェットキャップ、パフォーマンス低下したティア、またはその他の内部しきい値を示しているのかを知ることが有益でしょう。
有用な内部検証チェック:
モデルごとのreasoning_output_tokensを持つtoken_countイベントをクエリする。
0、516、1034、1552の正確な値のカウントを比較する。
モデルごとおよび日ごとにcount(reasoning_output_tokens = 516) / count(reasoning_output_tokens >= 516)を計算する。
gpt-5.5をgpt-5.2、gpt-5.4、およびCodex固有のバリアントと比較する。
品質評価を用いて、特に正確な516レスポンスとより長い推論レスポンスを分離して、gpt-5.2とgpt-5.5間で一致した複雑なタスクをリプレイする。